TOTAL VOLUME:

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$323,326,361

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$1,969,435,260

419,363

Markets across

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4,612

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5

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37%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 26, 3:45AM-4AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$1,124

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 26, 3:45AM-4AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 26, 3:45AM-4AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 26, 2026

Closed: Oct 26, 4:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 26, 3:45AM-4AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$5
$1,124
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T07:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T07:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current odds of the price going up or down, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $1,124, and the total volume traded to date, which is $1,124. This provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the likelihood of price movement. The dashboard helps visualize market sentiment and potential turning points in expectations surrounding crude oil.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts. While some analysts predict a continued rise in crude oil prices due to geopolitical factors and supply constraints, this market shows a more nuanced view. It’s common to see discrepancies between prediction markets and polls or analyst opinions, as markets incorporate a wider range of information and incentivize accurate forecasting through financial rewards. This difference highlights the value of considering diverse perspectives when evaluating potential oil price movements.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts directly reflects the probability of each outcome, as determined by supply and demand. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions based on new information, leading to dynamic price fluctuations. This creates a real-time assessment of market expectations, distinct from static forecasts.

This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures contracts as reported by a major financial exchange. The market will determine whether the price moved up or down from its starting point, based on this publicly available data. It’s important to note that the outcome is determined by objective market data, not subjective interpretation.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 26, 2026. Unexpected announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels, geopolitical tensions in major oil-producing regions, and shifts in global economic growth forecasts are all potential catalysts. Additionally, inventory reports from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and significant weather events that disrupt oil production or transportation could also influence trader sentiment. Any news impacting the supply or demand balance for crude oil has the potential to drive price fluctuations and shift the odds in this market.