TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.6b

24H VOL:

$333,432,169

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,971,286,090

419,492

Markets across

40,634

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,654

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 26, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$2,014

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 26, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 26, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 26, 2026

Closed: Oct 26, 3:45 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 26, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$28
$2,014
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T19:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T19:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You can view the odds, price history, and 24-hour trading volume directly on the page. Currently, the total volume for this market is $2,014, and the 24-hour volume is $1,997. This provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the likelihood of price movements, offering insight into market sentiment.

Generally, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on fundamental and technical analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential factors. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, especially when facing uncertain or rapidly changing events. This market provides a dynamic view of expectations, potentially identifying insights missed by conventional analysis.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective predictions of participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current implied probability of either outcome is determined by the relative prices of the 'up' and 'down' contracts, offering a clear signal of market sentiment.

This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the change in the price of crude oil between 3:30 PM and 3:45 PM ET on October 26th. The specific price used for resolution will be sourced from a widely recognized and publicly available financial data provider, ensuring a transparent and objective determination of the market's outcome.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 26, 2026. Major geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions or shifts in OPEC+ policy, are key catalysts. Unexpected economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or inventory levels, could also cause substantial price movements. Furthermore, any significant news regarding supply chain issues, refining capacity, or shifts in energy policy could influence trader sentiment and drive changes in the odds for this market.