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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 26, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$960

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 26, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 26, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET - Predict

1W

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Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 26, 2026

Closed: Oct 26, 3:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Liquidity
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 26, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$5
$960
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T07:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T07:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market displays the current implied probabilities for the price of crude oil to be up or down as of October 26th. It also provides a price history chart showing how these probabilities have shifted over time, along with the total 24-hour volume traded. Currently, the total volume for this market is $960, and the 24-hour volume is $960. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and trading activity related to this specific commodity.

Currently, analysts are divided on the future direction of crude oil prices, with some predicting a slight increase due to geopolitical tensions and others forecasting a decrease based on concerns about global economic slowdown. This market offers a different perspective, reflecting the collective wisdom of traders who are putting their capital at risk. While analyst forecasts are based on models and expert opinions, the odds on Predict represent real-time predictions based on actual monetary bets, potentially offering a more accurate signal of what will happen by Oct 26, 2026.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the implied probabilities you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the aggregate assessment of all traders participating in this market, and is updated constantly as new information becomes available and trading activity occurs. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a highly responsive and efficient market for forecasting the future price of crude oil.

This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between the opening price on October 26th and the closing price at 3:45 AM ET. The market will determine if the price is higher or lower at that time, and the corresponding outcome will be declared. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings based on their predictions.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 26, 2026. Unexpected announcements from OPEC+ regarding production cuts or increases would likely cause substantial price swings. Geopolitical events, such as escalating tensions in oil-producing regions, could also drive up prices due to supply concerns. Conversely, signs of a weakening global economy or increased US oil production could push prices lower. Major economic data releases, such as US inventory reports, will also be closely watched by traders and could influence the direction of this market.