TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$235,918,089

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,884,820,873

413,109

Markets across

40,428

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,364

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 26, 1:45AM-2AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$29

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 26, 1:45AM-2AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 26, 1:45AM-2AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 26, 2026

Closed: Oct 26, 2:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 26, 1:45AM-2AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$29
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T05:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T05:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market displays the current implied probabilities for the price of crude oil to be up or down. You’ll find a price history chart showing how the market has priced in different outcomes over time, along with the total volume traded—currently $29—and the 24-hour volume, which is $29. This allows you to quickly assess market sentiment and track changes in expectations as new information becomes available. The dashboard provides a real-time view of where traders stand on the direction of crude oil prices.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on economic models and geopolitical assessments, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a diverse range of perspectives and information. Discrepancies can arise due to differing assumptions, biases, or access to unique data. It's common to see this market anticipate shifts in sentiment before they are reflected in consensus analyst ratings, offering a potentially valuable signal for those following the oil market. This provides a unique comparison point to standard financial predictions.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, ultimately reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market's price movements are driven by new information, trading activity, and shifts in overall market sentiment. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions, leading to a dynamic and responsive price discovery process.

This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures contracts during the specified time window. The direction of the price change—whether it increases or decreases—will determine the winning outcome in this market. Traders will be able to see the verified result and the corresponding payout for winning contracts after the resolution date.

Several key signals and events could significantly impact this market before Oct 26, 2026. Unexpected announcements from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) regarding production levels, geopolitical instability in major oil-producing regions, and shifts in global economic growth forecasts are all potential catalysts. Additionally, inventory reports from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and unexpected disruptions to oil supply chains, such as weather events or pipeline outages, could trigger substantial price movements and shifts in trading activity within this market.