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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 26, 10:45AM-11AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$1,473

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 26, 10:45AM-11AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 26, 10:45AM-11AM ET - Predict

1W

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Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 26, 2026

Closed: Oct 26, 11:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 26, 10:45AM-11AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$15
$1,473
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T14:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T14:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a real-time view of the odds, a price history chart showing how the market has fluctuated, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $1,466. The total volume traded to date is $1,473. This allows participants to gauge market sentiment and identify potential trading opportunities within this specific event.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on fundamental and technical analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential black swan events. Discrepancies can arise due to differing assumptions, risk tolerances, and the ability of the market to rapidly adjust to new information. Examining these differences can provide valuable insights into market expectations and potential biases, offering a more nuanced view than either source alone.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the future price of crude oil. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective judgment of market participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The implied probability of each outcome (up or down) is derived from the current contract prices, providing a dynamic and real-time assessment of market sentiment. This creates a liquid and efficient market for forecasting the direction of crude oil prices.

This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between the opening price on October 26th at 10:45 AM ET and the closing price on October 26th at 11:00 AM ET. The direction of the price change – whether it goes up or down – will determine the winning outcome in this market.

Several factors could significantly move this market before its resolution. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions or changes in OPEC+ policy, are key catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like manufacturing indices or Chinese economic growth figures), will also influence trading activity. Furthermore, inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and any unforeseen weather events impacting oil production or transportation could all contribute to price volatility and shifts in the probabilities reflected in this market.