TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$235,918,089

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,884,820,873

413,109

Markets across

40,428

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,364

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 25, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$98

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 25, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 25, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 25, 2026

Closed: Oct 25, 9:30 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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Liquidity
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24h
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 25, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$5
$98
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T01:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T01:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a real-time display of the odds, a price history chart showing how the market has moved over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $97. The total volume traded to date is $98, giving you a sense of overall market interest. This information helps traders assess sentiment and make informed decisions about where they believe the price will be at the close of trading on October 25th.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on fundamental and technical analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential unforeseen events. It's common to see discrepancies between the two, especially in the short term. This market provides a unique, forward-looking indicator of expectations, potentially identifying opportunities that aren’t immediately apparent in conventional analysis. Examining these differences can be valuable for a comprehensive understanding of potential price movements.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower by the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective prediction of the participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the probability of the outcome as perceived by the market participants, offering a real-time assessment of expectations. Traders adjust their positions based on new information, creating a dynamic and responsive pricing mechanism.

This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 9:15 PM and 9:30 PM Eastern Time on October 25th. The market will determine whether the price increased or decreased during that period, and that result will be used to settle all outstanding contracts. Traders should monitor the price of WTI crude oil during that timeframe to understand the final outcome.

Several signals and events could significantly move this market before resolution. Unexpected geopolitical events in oil-producing regions, such as disruptions to supply or political instability, are key catalysts. Major economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like manufacturing indices or GDP figures), could also impact sentiment. Furthermore, announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels or changes in inventory levels reported by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) are likely to cause price fluctuations. Any surprise news regarding global energy policy or shifts in currency exchange rates could also influence trading activity in this market.