TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.8b

24H VOL:

$245,601,049

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,985,204,718

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,897,405,322

408,349

Markets across

39,583

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,443

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 25, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$154

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 25, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 25, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 25, 2026

Closed: Oct 25, 8:45 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 25, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$154
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T00:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T00:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current odds of prices going up or down, along with a price history chart showing how predictions have shifted over time. You can also see the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $153, and the total volume traded to date, which is $154. This provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the likely direction of crude oil prices leading up to the event. The dashboard is a key tool for understanding market sentiment.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts regarding the future of crude oil. While some analysts predict a continued rise in prices due to geopolitical factors and supply constraints, this market suggests a more nuanced outlook. It’s common to see discrepancies between prediction markets and polls or expert opinions, as markets aggregate the wisdom of many individuals and allow them to update their views dynamically based on new information. This difference can be valuable for informed decision-making.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts reflects the probability of each outcome, as determined by supply and demand. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the market’s collective assessment of the likelihood of an upward or downward movement in crude oil prices, and this price changes constantly as new information becomes available and traders adjust their positions.

This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 8:30 PM and 8:45 PM Eastern Time on October 25th. The market will determine whether the price moved up or down during that 15-minute window, and the outcome will be based on that verified price change.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 26, 2026. Unexpected announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels, geopolitical events impacting oil supply (such as conflicts in major oil-producing regions), or significant shifts in global economic growth forecasts could all influence trader sentiment. Additionally, inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and unexpected demand shocks, like a major disruption in transportation, could also cause substantial price fluctuations and impact the direction of this market.