TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.6b

24H VOL:

$323,326,361

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,969,435,260

419,363

Markets across

40,411

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 25, 11PM-11:15PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$343

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 25, 11PM-11:15PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 25, 11PM-11:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 25, 2026

Closed: Oct 25, 11:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 25, 11PM-11:15PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$343
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T03:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T03:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current odds of the price going up or down, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have changed over time. You can also see the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $341, and the total volume traded to date, which is $343. This provides a clear picture of market sentiment and activity surrounding the future direction of crude oil prices. The dashboard is updated in real-time, reflecting the latest predictions from traders.

Currently, prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts frequently publish price targets and recommendations based on fundamental and technical analysis, this market represents the collective wisdom of traders who are putting their money behind their beliefs. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. It's common to see this market anticipate shifts in price trends before they are widely recognized by mainstream financial analysts, reflecting a dynamic assessment of potential outcomes.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the aggregated predictions of all participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price essentially represents the probability of the outcome occurring, as perceived by the crowd. This dynamic pricing allows for real-time adjustments based on new information and changing sentiment.

This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures contracts as reported by a major financial data provider at 11:15 PM ET on October 25th. The market will pay out to those who correctly predicted whether the price at that time was higher or lower than the prevailing price before the event window began.

Several factors could significantly move this market before Oct 26, 2026. Geopolitical events, such as unexpected disruptions in oil-producing regions or shifts in international relations, are major catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like manufacturing indices or GDP growth), can also have a substantial impact. Furthermore, announcements from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) regarding production levels, or unexpected changes in inventory levels reported by the Energy Information Administration, could all drive significant price fluctuations and shifts in trading activity within this market.