TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$235,918,089

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,884,820,873

413,109

Markets across

40,428

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,364

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 25, 10PM-10:15PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$435

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 25, 10PM-10:15PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 25, 10PM-10:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 25, 2026

Closed: Oct 25, 10:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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24h
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 25, 10PM-10:15PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$435
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T02:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T02:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, along with a price history chart showing how those probabilities have shifted over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $426, and the total volume traded to date, which is $435. This provides a quick overview of market sentiment and activity surrounding this particular commodity.

Currently, the collective wisdom of traders in this market offers a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts are predicting moderate fluctuations in crude oil prices, the prediction market reflects a more nuanced view, incorporating a wider range of potential outcomes. It’s important to note that prediction markets often synthesize information from diverse sources, including expert opinions, real-time news, and geopolitical events, potentially leading to forecasts that differ from those of individual analysts or firms. The market’s aggregated view can be a valuable complement to conventional analysis.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust expectations as events unfold, offering a real-time assessment of potential price movements.

This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the closing price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) between 10:00 PM and 10:15 PM Eastern Time on October 25th. The direction of the price change – whether it’s up or down from the opening price – will determine the winning outcome in this market.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 26, 2026. Geopolitical events, such as escalating tensions in oil-producing regions or unexpected policy changes from OPEC+, are major catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like manufacturing indices or Chinese economic growth figures), will also be closely watched. Furthermore, any significant disruptions to oil supply, whether due to natural disasters or infrastructure failures, could trigger substantial price movements and shifts in this market’s probabilities. Unexpected inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) can also have a notable effect.