TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.8b

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$260,393,102

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2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,894,304,386

408,643

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39,771

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4,493

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 23, 9AM-9:15AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$2,144

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 23, 9AM-9:15AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 23, 9AM-9:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 23, 2026

Closed: Oct 23, 9:15 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 23, 9AM-9:15AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$10
$2,144
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T13:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T13:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a real-time display of the odds, a price history chart showing how the market has priced the event over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $2,136. The total volume traded to date is $2,144. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and identify potential trading opportunities within this specific market.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on fundamental and technical analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential unforeseen events. It's common to see discrepancies between the two, particularly when dealing with complex or uncertain events. Examining these differences can provide valuable insights into market sentiment and the perceived probabilities of various outcomes.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective prediction of the participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the probability that the market assigns to the outcome, with higher prices suggesting a greater likelihood of the price going up. This dynamic pricing allows for a real-time assessment of market expectations.

This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 9:00 AM and 9:15 AM Eastern Time on October 23, 2026, compared to its price at the start of that period. The direction of the price change – up or down – will determine the winning outcome of this market.

Several signals and events could significantly move this market. Geopolitical tensions in major oil-producing regions, unexpected changes in global demand (driven by economic growth or recession), and announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels are all key catalysts. Furthermore, major weather events that disrupt oil supply, or significant technological advancements in energy production, could also influence trading activity. Any news impacting the global economic outlook or energy policy has the potential to shift sentiment and alter the probabilities reflected in this market.