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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 23, 9:45AM-10AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$1,355

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 23, 9:45AM-10AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 23, 9:45AM-10AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 23, 2026

Closed: Oct 23, 10:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 23, 9:45AM-10AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$198
$1,355
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T13:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T13:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probability of the price of crude oil going up or down between 9:45AM and 10:00AM ET on October 23rd. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, a price history chart showing how the market has moved over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $1,354. Total volume for this market is $1,355. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and potential trading opportunities.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different outlook than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on economic models and geopolitical assessments, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a diverse range of perspectives and real-time information. Discrepancies can arise due to differing assumptions, biases, or access to information. It’s common to see this market react more quickly to breaking news or unexpected events than traditional forecasts, offering a potentially more dynamic view of future price movements.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower during the specified time window. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective prediction of participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the probability that the market assigns to the outcome, providing a quantifiable measure of expectation for the crude oil price movement.

This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures contracts during the 9:45AM-10:00AM ET trading window on October 23rd. If the price is higher at 10:00AM ET than at 9:45AM ET, the 'Up' outcome will prevail; otherwise, the 'Down' outcome will be considered the result.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before resolution. Unexpected geopolitical developments in major oil-producing regions, such as the Middle East, are a key factor. Major economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like Chinese manufacturing numbers or US GDP growth), could also have a substantial impact. Furthermore, any surprise announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels, or unforeseen disruptions to oil supply (e.g., due to weather events or pipeline issues), would likely cause significant price fluctuations and shift the odds in this market.