TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.6b

24H VOL:

$333,432,169

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2,984,640,614

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$1,971,286,090

419,492

Markets across

40,634

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,654

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

VS.

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63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 23, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$974

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 23, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 23, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 23, 2026

Closed: Oct 23, 8:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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Liquidity
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24h
7d
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 23, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$974
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T12:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T12:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price movement tracks the implied probability of the price moving up or down between 8:30AM and 8:45AM ET on October 23rd. You’ll find a real-time view of the current odds, a price history chart showing how the market has traded, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $974. The total volume traded to date is $974, offering insight into overall market interest. This allows you to monitor how traders are assessing the likelihood of price changes.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts for crude oil. While many analysts predict a continued upward trend based on geopolitical factors, this market shows a more nuanced view, incorporating a wider range of potential outcomes. It’s common to see discrepancies between prediction markets and polls or analyst reports, as markets aggregate diverse information and incentivize accurate forecasting through financial rewards. This difference highlights the unique insights offered by the wisdom of the crowd.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will move up or down during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts directly reflects the implied probability of each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders adjust their bids and asks based on new information and their own analysis, creating a dynamic price discovery process. The current market price provides a real-time assessment of collective expectations.

This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the crude oil price between 8:30AM and 8:45AM ET on October 23rd. A price increase will result in a payout for those who predicted 'up,' while a price decrease or no change will result in a payout for those who predicted 'down.' The final price data will be sourced from established financial data providers.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before resolution. Unexpected announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels, geopolitical tensions in major oil-producing regions, or surprising inventory reports from the U.S. Energy Information Administration are all potential catalysts. Macroeconomic data releases, such as inflation figures or changes in global economic growth forecasts, could also influence trader sentiment. Any news impacting the supply or demand balance for crude oil has the potential to shift the odds in this market.