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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 23, 7AM-7:15AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$1,562

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 23, 7AM-7:15AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 23, 7AM-7:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 23, 2026

Closed: Oct 23, 7:15 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 23, 7AM-7:15AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$297
$1,562
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T11:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T11:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down, along with a price history chart showing how these probabilities have shifted over time. You’ll also find the total volume traded in this market, currently at $1,562, and the 24-hour volume, which is $1,562. This provides a real-time view of where traders are placing their bets and how sentiment is evolving leading up to the event.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts might rely on fundamental factors like supply and demand reports, this market incorporates a wider range of information and collective intelligence. The question of whether prediction markets outperform expert opinions is a subject of ongoing debate, but this market offers a unique view based on the wisdom of the crowd. It's a fascinating comparison to see how traders weigh various factors against professional predictions.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the crude oil price will be up or down during the specified timeframe. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating an implied probability for each outcome. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions, and the market reflects the aggregated sentiment of all participants. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a real-time assessment of expectations.

This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of crude oil between 7:00 AM ET and 7:15 AM ET on October 23rd. The direction of the price change – whether it goes up or down – will determine which outcome is considered correct and will trigger settlement of the contracts in this market.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before resolution. Unexpected geopolitical events in oil-producing regions, such as disruptions to supply or political instability, are major catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or inventory levels, could also have a substantial impact. Furthermore, any surprising announcements from OPEC+ regarding production cuts or increases would likely cause significant price fluctuations and shift the probabilities reflected in this market. Keep an eye on these factors as the resolution date approaches.