TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.8b

24H VOL:

$245,601,049

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2,985,204,718

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$1,897,405,322

408,349

Markets across

39,583

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,443

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

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63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 23, 6AM-6:15AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$2,126

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 23, 6AM-6:15AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 23, 6AM-6:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 23, 2026

Closed: Oct 23, 6:15 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 23, 6AM-6:15AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$2,126
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T10:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T10:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a real-time display of the odds, a price history chart showing how sentiment has shifted over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $2,126. The total volume traded on this market is $2,126. This allows you to quickly assess market sentiment and activity related to short-term crude oil price movements.

Currently, prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts frequently publish price targets and recommendations, this market reflects the collective judgment of a diverse group of traders. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, as prediction markets can incorporate a wider range of information and react more quickly to new developments. This difference highlights the 'wisdom of the crowd' effect, where aggregated predictions can be more accurate than individual expert opinions.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower within the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the market’s expectation of the likelihood of the price moving up versus down, offering a dynamic assessment of potential price changes.

This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of crude oil between 6:00 AM and 6:15 AM ET on October 23rd. The direction of the price change—whether it goes up or down—will determine the winning outcome of this market. The final price will be sourced from publicly available financial data.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 23, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events in major oil-producing regions, such as disruptions to supply or political instability, are key catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like manufacturing indices or GDP figures), can also have a substantial impact. Furthermore, announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels, or any major shifts in inventory levels reported by the EIA, could cause significant price fluctuations and shift the odds in this market.