TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.8b

24H VOL:

$260,393,102

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,894,304,386

408,643

Markets across

39,771

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,493

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 23, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$2,295

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 23, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 23, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 23, 2026

Closed: Oct 23, 6:30 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 23, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$105
$2,295
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T10:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T10:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You'll find a real-time display of the odds, a price history chart showing how probabilities have shifted over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $2,288. The total volume traded on this market is $2,295. This allows you to quickly assess market sentiment and how it’s evolving as we approach the event timeframe.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on fundamental and technical analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential black swan events. Discrepancies can arise from differing assumptions about geopolitical risks, supply chain disruptions, or unexpected demand shifts. It’s common to see this market adjust more rapidly to new information than slower-moving analyst reports, offering a potentially more dynamic view of likely outcomes.

This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 6:15 AM ET and 6:30 AM ET on October 23, 2024. A price increase will result in a payout for those who predicted 'up', while a price decrease will result in a payout for those who predicted 'down'. The exact price will be sourced from a widely-recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 23, 2026. Geopolitical events, such as conflicts in oil-producing regions or changes in OPEC+ production policies, are major drivers. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like Chinese manufacturing numbers or US employment reports), can also cause shifts. Unexpected weather events, like hurricanes disrupting Gulf of Mexico oil production, represent another potential catalyst. Finally, any significant news regarding oil inventories or shifts in investor sentiment could move the market.