TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$245,801,863

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2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

events

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4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

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63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 23, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$1,062

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 23, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 23, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 23, 2026

Closed: Oct 23, 5:30 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 23, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$10
$1,062
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T09:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T09:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a visual representation of these odds, along with the historical price movements of the market. It also displays the total volume traded in this market, currently at $1,062, and the 24-hour volume, which is $1,062. This provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the likelihood of price fluctuations.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on fundamental and technical analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a broader range of information and potential catalysts. Discrepancies can arise due to differing assumptions, risk appetites, or access to information. It’s common to see this market anticipate shifts in sentiment before they are reflected in consensus analyst ratings, offering a potentially leading indicator of future price movements.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective expectations of participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing allows for real-time adjustments to probabilities as new information becomes available, creating a constantly evolving assessment of the potential outcome.

This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of crude oil between 5:15 AM and 5:30 AM Eastern Time on October 23rd. The direction of the price change—whether it goes up or down—will determine the winning outcome of this market. The resolution process relies on publicly available data to ensure transparency and accuracy.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before resolution. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions or shifts in international relations, are key catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or inventory levels, can also drive price movements. Furthermore, announcements from OPEC+ regarding production quotas or changes in energy policy could have a substantial impact. Even weather patterns, especially those affecting oil transportation routes, could contribute to volatility in this market.