TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

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$245,801,863

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2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

events

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4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

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63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 23, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$153

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 23, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 23, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 23, 2026

Closed: Oct 23, 4:45 PM EST

predict

Predict

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 23, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$107
$153
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T20:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T20:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a visual representation of these odds, along with the total volume traded – currently $153 – and the 24-hour volume, which is $152. The dashboard also displays a price history chart, allowing you to see how the market has priced in information over time. This provides a real-time view of where traders stand on the direction of crude oil prices.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer point estimates or ranges for crude oil prices, this market aggregates the collective wisdom of many traders, representing a probability distribution of potential outcomes. It’s common to see discrepancies, particularly when significant uncertainty or debate surrounds factors influencing oil prices, such as geopolitical events or OPEC+ decisions. This difference highlights the unique insight offered by a prediction market’s dynamic pricing mechanism.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction format. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the specified time. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective sentiment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a 'yes' contract (crude oil price goes up) and a 'no' contract (crude oil price goes down) fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating an implied probability for each outcome. This dynamic pricing ensures the market reflects the most up-to-date information and expectations.

This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be determined by comparing the crude oil price at 4:30PM-4:45PM ET on October 23rd to the price at the market’s open. If the price is higher, the ‘yes’ contracts will pay out; if it is lower, the ‘no’ contracts will pay out. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized and publicly available financial data provider.

Several signals and events could significantly move this market before Oct 23, 2026. Major geopolitical developments in oil-producing regions, such as conflicts or political instability, are key catalysts. Unexpected announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels will also have a substantial impact. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like manufacturing indices or Chinese economic growth figures), can shift trader sentiment. Finally, any unforeseen disruptions to oil supply, like natural disasters impacting production facilities, could lead to price volatility and movement in this market.