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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 23, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$254

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 23, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 23, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 23, 2026

Closed: Oct 23, 3:30 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 23, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$254
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T19:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T19:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a real-time display of the odds, along with a price history chart showing how those probabilities have shifted over time. The dashboard also shows the 24-hour trading volume, giving you an indication of how actively this market is being traded. Currently, the volume is $258 and the total volume is $254.

Currently, the prevailing sentiment in this market suggests a different outlook than many traditional analyst forecasts. While a significant number of analysts predict a moderate increase in crude oil prices over the next few weeks, this market currently reflects a more uncertain view. It’s important to remember that prediction markets aggregate the wisdom of many traders, potentially incorporating information not readily available to or considered by traditional analysts. This divergence highlights the unique insights offered by this market.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction process where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective predictions of all participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price movements are driven by new information, breaking news, and shifts in overall market sentiment, all of which are rapidly incorporated into the contract prices.

This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 3:15 PM ET and 3:30 PM ET on October 23rd. If the price is higher at 3:30 PM ET than at 3:15 PM ET, the 'Crude Oil Up' outcome will prevail; otherwise, the 'Crude Oil Down' outcome will be considered the result.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before resolution. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions, or announcements regarding OPEC+ production policies, could cause substantial price swings. Major economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or inflation, could also impact trader sentiment. Additionally, any significant shifts in the US dollar’s strength or unexpected inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) could move this market considerably.