TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.8b

24H VOL:

$245,601,049

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,985,204,718

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,897,405,322

408,349

Markets across

39,583

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,443

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

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Kalshi:

63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 23, 2AM-2:15AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$1,791

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 23, 2AM-2:15AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 23, 2AM-2:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 23, 2026

Closed: Oct 23, 2:15 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 23, 2AM-2:15AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$10
$1,791
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T06:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T06:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market displays the current implied probabilities for the price of crude oil to move up or down between 2:00 AM and 2:15 AM ET on October 23rd. You’ll find a price history chart showing how these probabilities have shifted over time, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $1,791. Total volume for this market is $1,791. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and potential trading opportunities based on recent activity.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts. While some analysts predict moderate price fluctuations, this market suggests a more volatile outlook. It's important to remember that prediction markets aggregate the wisdom of many individual traders, potentially incorporating information not readily available in standard analyses. This can lead to divergences from conventional wisdom, offering a unique signal about potential price movements. Examining these differences can be valuable when forming your own informed opinion.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective prediction of the participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current implied probability of a price increase is determined by the ratio of 'buy' orders to 'sell' orders, creating a dynamic and real-time assessment of market expectations.

This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures contracts between 2:00 AM and 2:15 AM ET on October 23rd. If the price increases during that period, the 'Crude Oil Up' outcome will be considered correct; otherwise, the 'Crude Oil Down' outcome will prevail. The final price will be sourced from established financial data providers.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before its resolution. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions or shifts in international relations, could trigger price volatility. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or inventory levels, will also be closely watched. Furthermore, any announcements from OPEC+ regarding production cuts or increases could have a substantial impact. Finally, major weather events that threaten oil infrastructure or shipping routes could also move this market.