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416,910

Markets across

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5

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 23, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$360

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 23, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 23, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 23, 2026

Closed: Oct 23, 2:45 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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Liquidity
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 23, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$10
$360
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T18:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T18:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current odds of the price going up or down, along with a price history chart illustrating how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $343, and the total volume traded to date, which is $360. This provides a clear overview of market sentiment and activity surrounding the direction of crude oil prices leading up to the event.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may provide point estimates or ranges for crude oil price movements, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a probabilistic view of potential outcomes. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, as prediction markets can quickly incorporate new information and react to unforeseen events in a way that slower-moving analyst reports may not. This difference highlights the dynamic nature of this market.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective judgment of market participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the probability that the market assigns to the crude oil price moving in a particular direction, offering a real-time assessment of expectations.

This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 2:30 PM ET and 2:45 PM ET on October 23rd. The direction of the price change – whether it goes up or down – will determine the winning outcome in this market, reflecting the collective prediction of traders on Predict.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 23, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions or shifts in international relations, could cause price volatility. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or inventory levels, will also be closely watched. Furthermore, statements from OPEC+ regarding production levels or revisions to energy policy by major consuming nations could all influence trading activity and shift the odds in this market, reflecting changing expectations about crude oil prices.