TOTAL VOLUME:

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$1,879,276,037

410,833

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5

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 23, 1PM-1:15PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$690

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 23, 1PM-1:15PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 23, 1PM-1:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 23, 2026

Closed: Oct 23, 1:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 23, 1PM-1:15PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$690
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T17:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T17:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a real-time display of the odds, a price history chart showing how sentiment has shifted over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $690. The total volume traded in this market is $690. This information helps traders understand market sentiment and make informed decisions about their predictions.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on fundamental and technical analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential black swan events. If a significant number of analysts predict a price decrease, but this market shows a strong bias towards an increase, it suggests traders believe factors not captured in conventional analysis are at play. This divergence can be a valuable signal for those following the oil market.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating an implied probability for each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe the price will go up, the higher the price of the 'up' contract, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism reflects the collective intelligence of the market participants.

This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 1:00 PM ET and 1:15 PM ET on October 23, 2026. If the price is higher at 1:15 PM ET than at 1:00 PM ET, the 'Crude Oil Up' outcome will be considered correct; otherwise, the 'Crude Oil Down' outcome will prevail.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before resolution. Geopolitical events, such as conflicts in oil-producing regions or changes in OPEC+ production policies, are major catalysts. Unexpected economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or inflation, can also drive price movements. Furthermore, major weather events, like hurricanes impacting oil infrastructure, or shifts in inventory levels reported by the Energy Information Administration could cause substantial shifts in the probabilities reflected in this market. Any news impacting supply or demand will be closely watched by traders.