TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

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$290,393,159

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,944,100,805

420,493

Markets across

40,511

events

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4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

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63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 23, 1:45PM-2PM ET
predict

Will crude oil prices go up or down?

Volume:
$56

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 23, 1:45PM-2PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 23, 1:45PM-2PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 23, 2026

Closed: Oct 23, 2:00 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 23, 1:45PM-2PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$3
$56
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T17:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T17:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, a price history chart showing how the market has priced the event over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $56. The total volume traded to date is $56. This allows participants to quickly assess market sentiment and trading activity related to crude oil price movements.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on fundamental and technical analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential unforeseen events. Discrepancies can arise due to differing assumptions, risk appetites, and the ability of the market to rapidly adjust to new information. It's common to see this market diverge from polls and expert opinions, offering a unique signal about the likely outcome.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective forecast of participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the probability that the market assigns to the outcome, with higher prices suggesting a greater likelihood of the price going up.

This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the closing price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) between 1:45 PM and 2:00 PM Eastern Time on October 23, 2026. The direction of the price change will determine whether the 'Up' or 'Down' outcome is considered correct.

Several signals and events could significantly impact this market. Geopolitical events, such as conflicts in oil-producing regions or changes in OPEC+ production policies, are major catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global economic growth and demand, can also influence the price of crude oil. Unexpected supply disruptions, like refinery outages or pipeline issues, could drive prices higher. Furthermore, shifts in investor sentiment and speculative trading activity can contribute to volatility in this market.