TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.8b

24H VOL:

$244,077,041

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,985,204,718

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,901,278,909

407,043

Markets across

39,548

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,422

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 23, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$25

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 23, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 23, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 23, 2026

Closed: Oct 23, 1:45 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 23, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$5
$25
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T17:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T17:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current odds of the price going up or down, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You'll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $25, and the total volume traded to date, which is $25. This provides a clear overview of market sentiment and activity surrounding the future direction of crude oil prices. The dashboard is updated in real-time, reflecting the latest predictions from users.

Currently, prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may provide point estimates or ranges, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a probability distribution of potential outcomes. It's common to see discrepancies between the two, particularly when there's significant uncertainty or disagreement about future events. This market can be a valuable tool for gauging overall market belief, which may differ from the views of individual experts or firms.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts reflects the implied probability of each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price adjusts dynamically based on supply and demand, meaning that as more people bet on one outcome, the price of that outcome’s contract will increase, and vice versa. This creates a real-time assessment of market expectations.

This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures contracts between 1:30 PM ET and 1:45 PM ET on October 23rd. The final price movement will be verified against credible public sources to determine whether the market predicted the direction of the price change correctly. The outcome will be a simple up or down determination.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 23, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions or changes in OPEC+ policy, are major catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like manufacturing indices or GDP growth), can also have a substantial impact. Furthermore, inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and any significant news regarding supply chain issues or refining capacity could all influence trading activity and shift the odds in this market.