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420,493

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 23, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$565

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 23, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 23, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 23, 2026

Closed: Oct 23, 12:30 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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Liquidity
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24h
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 23, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$5
$565
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T04:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T04:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You'll find a visual representation of these odds, along with a price history chart showing how they’ve changed over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $553, and the total volume traded to date, which is $565. This information helps traders understand market sentiment and activity surrounding this specific event.

Currently, it’s important to note that prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on economic models and geopolitical assessments, this market aggregates the collective wisdom of traders who are directly putting capital at risk. This can lead to divergences in expectations. It’s common to see prediction markets outperform polls or expert opinions, as they incorporate a broader range of information and incentives. Examining these differences can provide a more nuanced understanding of potential outcomes.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the odds you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The platform uses a market-making algorithm to ensure liquidity and fair pricing, allowing traders to easily enter and exit positions. This dynamic pricing mechanism reflects the evolving expectations of participants.

This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 12:15 AM and 12:30 AM Eastern Time on October 23, 2026. If the price is higher than the starting price at 12:15 AM ET, the 'Crude Oil Up' outcome will prevail; otherwise, 'Crude Oil Down' will be the result. The final price will be sourced from a reputable financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 23, 2026. Major geopolitical events, such as conflicts in oil-producing regions or changes in OPEC+ production policies, are key catalysts. Unexpected economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like Chinese manufacturing numbers or US employment reports), can also drive price movements. Furthermore, shifts in inventory levels reported by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and weather patterns impacting supply chains could all contribute to volatility in this market. Any surprise announcements from major oil companies are also worth watching.