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416,910

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 23, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$5

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 23, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 23, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 23, 2026

Closed: Oct 23, 1:30 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
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24h
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 23, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$10
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T17:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T17:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, as well as a price history chart showing how the market has priced in information over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $5, and the total volume traded to date, which is $5. This allows you to see how actively traders are participating in this market and how sentiment is shifting.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts frequently publish price targets based on fundamental and technical analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a broader range of information and potential outcomes. Often, this leads to a more nuanced view than a single analyst’s prediction. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, as prediction markets can quickly incorporate unexpected news or shifts in sentiment that analysts may be slower to react to.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective forecast of all participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the probability that the market assigns to the outcome occurring, and traders can adjust their positions as new information becomes available. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to provide a real-time assessment of the likely future direction of the crude oil price.

This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 1:15 PM ET and 1:30 PM ET on October 23, 2024, compared to the price immediately before that period. The direction of the price change – up or down – will determine the winning outcome in this market. Traders will be able to see the verified result on Predict following the event.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 23, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions or changes in international relations, are major catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or inventory levels, can also have a substantial impact. Additionally, announcements from OPEC+ regarding production cuts or increases, or even weather events that impact oil infrastructure, could all cause significant price movements and shifts in the probabilities reflected in this market. Keep an eye on these developments for potential trading opportunities.