TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.6b

24H VOL:

$323,326,361

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,969,435,260

419,363

Markets across

40,411

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 23, 10AM-10:15AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$665

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 23, 10AM-10:15AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 23, 10AM-10:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 23, 2026

Closed: Oct 23, 10:15 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 23, 10AM-10:15AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$10
$665
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T14:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T14:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You'll find a real-time display of the odds, along with a price history chart showing how the market has fluctuated over time. The dashboard also shows the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $664, and the total volume traded to date, which is $665. This provides a quick overview of market sentiment and activity surrounding the direction of crude oil prices.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on economic models and geopolitical assessments, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a diverse range of opinions and information. Discrepancies can arise due to differing assumptions, access to information, or simply varying interpretations of the same data. It’s common to see this market anticipate shifts in sentiment before they are fully reflected in mainstream analyst predictions, offering a potentially valuable alternative viewpoint.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts directly reflects the implied probability of each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market dynamically adjusts as traders react to new information and changing conditions, creating a real-time assessment of expectations. The current trading activity and volume influence the price discovery process, making it a responsive indicator of market sentiment.

This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 10:00 AM and 10:15 AM Eastern Time on October 23, 2024, compared to the price at 9:45 AM Eastern Time on the same day. The direction of the price change – up or down – will determine the winning outcome in this market.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 23, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions to oil supply in major producing regions, could cause prices to spike. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like manufacturing indices or GDP figures), will also be closely watched. Furthermore, announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels, or any significant shifts in inventory levels reported by the Energy Information Administration, could trigger substantial price movements and influence trading activity in this market.