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416,910

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 8AM-8:15AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$792

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 8AM-8:15AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 8AM-8:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 22, 2026

Closed: Oct 22, 8:15 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 8AM-8:15AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$209
$792
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T12:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T12:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market displays the current implied probabilities for the price of crude oil to be up or down during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a real-time view of trading volume, currently at $791, alongside the 24-hour volume and a history of how the odds have shifted. This allows you to see how traders are currently assessing the likelihood of each outcome. The dashboard also shows the total volume traded in this market, which is $792.

Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for crude oil. While analysts frequently publish price targets and directional predictions, this market represents the collective judgment of a diverse group of traders putting their capital at risk. This often leads to a different assessment of probabilities than you might find in a typical survey of experts. It’s important to consider both sources of information when forming your own view on the future price of crude oil.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be up or down during the specified period. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the aggregated predictions of all participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism means the odds constantly adjust as new information becomes available and traders update their perspectives on the likely outcome.

This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of crude oil between 8:00 AM and 8:15 AM ET on October 22nd. The direction of the price change – whether it goes up or down – will determine the winning outcome in this market. The resolution process relies on publicly available data to ensure an objective and transparent result.

Several factors could significantly move this market before Oct 22, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events in major oil-producing regions, such as disruptions to supply or escalating conflicts, would likely have a substantial impact. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like manufacturing indices or GDP figures), could also shift trader sentiment. Furthermore, any surprising announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels or policy changes would be closely watched and could cause significant price fluctuations in this market.