TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.8b

24H VOL:

$277,138,640

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,905,404,943

412,077

Markets across

39,838

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,526

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$1,382

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET - Predict

1W

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Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 22, 2026

Closed: Oct 22, 8:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$199
$1,382
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T12:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T12:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market displays the current implied probabilities for the price of crude oil to be up or down during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a real-time view of trading volume, currently at $1,374, and the total volume traded to date, which is $1,382. The dashboard also shows the evolving odds as traders buy and sell contracts, providing a dynamic representation of market sentiment. This allows you to quickly assess where the crowd believes the price is heading.

Currently, the collective wisdom of the crowd, as reflected in this market, often diverges from traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts provide price targets and directional predictions for crude oil, their views are frequently based on complex models and can be slow to adapt to new information. This market, in contrast, aggregates the insights of numerous traders, creating a rapidly updating assessment of potential price movements. The comparison to analyst expectations can reveal areas of agreement or disagreement, offering a broader perspective on the potential for price changes.

This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 8:30 AM and 8:45 AM Eastern Time on October 22, 2024, compared to the price immediately prior to that period. The direction of the price change – up or down – will determine the winning outcome in this market.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before resolution. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions or changes in OPEC+ production policy, are major catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like manufacturing indices or Chinese economic growth figures), will also be closely watched. Furthermore, inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and any unforeseen weather events impacting oil infrastructure could all contribute to shifts in the price of crude oil and, consequently, the odds in this market.