TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.8b

24H VOL:

$245,601,049

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,985,204,718

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,897,405,322

408,349

Markets across

39,583

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,443

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$709

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 22, 2026

Closed: Oct 22, 7:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$200
$709
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T11:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T11:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a real-time display of the odds, a price history chart showing how sentiment has shifted over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $707. The total volume traded to date is $709. This information allows traders to quickly assess the market's prevailing expectations and identify potential trading opportunities based on their own analysis.

Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for crude oil prices. While many analysts are predicting moderate price fluctuations, this market reflects a more nuanced view, incorporating the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders. It’s important to note that analyst predictions are often based on fundamental analysis and economic models, whereas this market is driven by real-time speculation and event-driven expectations. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies and information access.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth and trading activity provide insights into the strength of conviction behind different price predictions, offering a dynamic and responsive assessment of potential price movements.

This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 7:30 AM and 7:45 AM Eastern Time on October 22, 2024, compared to the price at 7:30 AM ET. The direction of the price change – up or down – will determine the winning outcome in this market.

Several signals and events could significantly move this market before resolution. Unexpected geopolitical developments in major oil-producing regions, such as the Middle East, are key catalysts. Major economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like Chinese manufacturing data) or U.S. inventory reports, could also trigger price swings. Furthermore, any announcements regarding OPEC+ production policies or disruptions to oil supply chains (e.g., due to weather events) will likely impact trading activity and shift the probabilities reflected in this market.