TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.8b

24H VOL:

$277,138,640

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2,984,640,614

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$1,905,404,943

412,077

Markets across

39,838

events

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4,526

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

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63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$628

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 22, 2026

Closed: Oct 22, 7:30 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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Liquidity
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24h
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$199
$628
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T11:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T11:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the implied probability of the price of crude oil going up or down during the specified timeframe. You'll find a dynamic display of current odds, reflecting what traders are willing to bet, as well as a price history showing how those odds have shifted over time. The dashboard also shows the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $627, and the total volume traded to date, which is $628. This provides a real-time view of market sentiment.

Currently, prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may provide point estimates or ranges, this market aggregates the collective wisdom of many traders, expressing their beliefs as probabilities. It's common to see discrepancies between the two, as prediction markets can react more quickly to new information and incorporate a wider range of perspectives. This market represents a forward-looking assessment, potentially capturing factors not fully reflected in conventional analysis.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective prediction of participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current implied probability of either outcome is determined by the ratio of buy and sell orders, and this is constantly updated as new trades are placed. This creates a dynamic and real-time assessment of market expectations.

This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of crude oil between 7:15 AM and 7:30 AM ET on October 22nd, as reported by a widely recognized financial data provider. The direction of the price change – whether it goes up or down – will determine the winning outcome in this market. The resolution process is designed to be transparent and based on objective data.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before resolution. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions or shifts in international relations, are key catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or inventory levels, could also drive price movements. Furthermore, any major announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels or policy changes would likely have a substantial impact. Finally, unforeseen weather events, like hurricanes impacting oil infrastructure, could introduce volatility into this market.