TOTAL VOLUME:

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$333,432,169

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$1,971,286,090

419,492

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4,654

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5

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37%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 6PM-6:15PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$223

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 6PM-6:15PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 6PM-6:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 22, 2026

Closed: Oct 22, 6:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 6PM-6:15PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$2
$223
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T22:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T22:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a visual representation of these odds, along with the total volume traded—currently $223—and the 24-hour volume, which is $215. The dashboard also displays a price history chart, allowing you to see how the market’s predictions have shifted over time. This provides a comprehensive overview of how traders are assessing the likely direction of crude oil prices.

Often, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts frequently rely on models and reports, this market reflects the collective judgment of individuals putting their money where their beliefs are. It's common to see divergences between the two, as traders may incorporate information not readily available in standard analyses, or weigh factors differently. Currently, it's important to note that this market is driven by trader sentiment, and may not align with the prevailing opinions of financial analysts regarding crude oil.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the price of crude oil will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective forecast of participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current spread between the 'up' and 'down' contracts indicates the level of uncertainty and conviction surrounding the outcome. The more volume traded, the more confidence there is in the current price.

This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 6:00 PM and 6:15 PM ET on October 22nd. Whether the price goes up or down during that 15-minute window determines the winning outcome in this market. The final price will be sourced from publicly available financial data.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 22, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events in major oil-producing regions, such as disruptions to supply from the Middle East, could drive prices higher. Conversely, indications of slowing global economic growth, particularly from China, might push prices down. Major inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and OPEC decisions regarding production levels are also key catalysts. Furthermore, any significant shifts in the US dollar's strength could impact crude oil prices, as they are typically priced in dollars.