TOTAL VOLUME:

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412,077

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$2

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET - Predict

1W

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Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 22, 2026

Closed: Oct 22, 5:30 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$2
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T21:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T21:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market displays the current implied probabilities for the price of crude oil to move up or down. You can view the real-time odds, track the price history of the market, and see the 24-hour trading volume. Currently, the total volume for this market is $2, with $2 traded in the last 24 hours. This allows participants to gauge market sentiment and make informed decisions based on the collective predictions of other traders.

Often, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on fundamental and technical analysis, this market reflects the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential unforeseen events. It's common to see discrepancies between what experts predict and what traders are pricing in, particularly when dealing with complex or uncertain events. This difference can be valuable for identifying potential blind spots in conventional analysis and assessing the overall level of risk.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous exchange where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the crude oil price will move up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating an implied probability for each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe an outcome is likely, the higher the price of contracts betting on that outcome will rise, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism reflects the collective intelligence of the market participants.

This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 5:15 PM and 5:30 PM Eastern Time on October 22, 2024, compared to its price at the start of that period. The direction of the price change – up or down – will determine the winning outcome of this market.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 22, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions or changes in international relations, are major catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or inflation, can also influence crude oil prices. Furthermore, announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels, or any significant shifts in inventory levels reported by the Energy Information Administration, could trigger substantial price movements and alter the probabilities reflected in this market.