TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.5b

24H VOL:

$271,200,656

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,922,627,141

420,368

Markets across

40,352

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,484

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 4:45PM-5PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$870

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 4:45PM-5PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 4:45PM-5PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 22, 2026

Closed: Oct 22, 5:00 PM EST

predict

Predict

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 4:45PM-5PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$317
$870
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T20:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T20:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market displays the current implied probabilities for the price of crude oil to be up or down. You’ll find a price history chart showing how these probabilities have shifted over time, along with the total volume traded in this market, currently at $870. The 24-hour volume is also displayed as $868, indicating recent trading activity. This allows you to quickly assess market sentiment and track changes in expectations regarding future oil prices.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different outlook than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on economic models and geopolitical assessments, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a diverse range of perspectives. Discrepancies can arise due to differing interpretations of data, varying risk appetites, or the incorporation of information not readily available to analysts. It’s common to see this market anticipate shifts in price before they are reflected in conventional forecasts, offering a potentially valuable alternative viewpoint.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the crude oil price will be up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating an implied probability for each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe the price will rise, the higher the price of the “up” contract, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market reflects the collective intelligence of participants.

This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil during the specified timeframe of 4:45 PM to 5:00 PM Eastern Time on October 22nd. The market will determine whether the price moved up or down during that period, and that outcome will be recorded as the result of this market.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 22, 2026. Unexpected announcements from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) regarding production levels, geopolitical events impacting major oil-producing regions, and shifts in global economic growth forecasts are all potential catalysts. Furthermore, inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and any unforeseen disruptions to oil supply, such as natural disasters or pipeline outages, could also lead to substantial price movements and shifts in the probabilities reflected in this market.