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420,368

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 3:45PM-4PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$538

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 3:45PM-4PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 3:45PM-4PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 22, 2026

Closed: Oct 22, 4:00 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 3:45PM-4PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$369
$538
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T19:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T19:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current odds of the price going up or down, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You can also view the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $537, and the total volume traded to date, which is $538. This provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the likely direction of crude oil prices leading up to the resolution date. The dashboard is a central place to monitor activity in this market.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts. While some analysts predict a continued rise in oil prices due to geopolitical factors and supply constraints, this market suggests a more nuanced outlook. It's important to remember that analyst forecasts are often based on models and assumptions, while this market represents the collective judgment of individuals putting their money where their beliefs are. This difference in outlook can be valuable for a more comprehensive understanding of potential price movements.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price reflects the aggregated wisdom of the crowd, and changes rapidly as new information becomes available or sentiment shifts. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions, leading to a dynamic and informative price discovery process.

This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures contracts as reported by a major financial data provider at the specified time. The direction of the price change—up or down—relative to the price at the market's open will determine the winning outcome. Traders will be able to see the final outcome and any relevant supporting data shortly after resolution.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 22, 2026. Major geopolitical developments, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions or changes in OPEC+ production policy, would likely have a substantial impact. Unexpected economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or inflation, could also shift market sentiment. Furthermore, any significant news regarding inventory levels, refining capacity, or shifts in energy policy could influence the price of crude oil and, consequently, the odds in this market. Traders will be closely monitoring these factors.