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420,493

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 2PM-2:15PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$697

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 2PM-2:15PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 2PM-2:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 22, 2026

Closed: Oct 22, 2:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 2PM-2:15PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$209
$697
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T18:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T18:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current odds of the price going up or down, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $697, and the total volume traded to date, which is $697. This provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the likelihood of price movements in crude oil. The dashboard is designed to help you understand market sentiment and track changes in expectations.

Currently, the prevailing sentiment in this market differs from many traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts predict a continued period of elevated oil prices due to geopolitical factors and supply constraints, the odds on Predict suggest a more nuanced view. This market allows for a broader range of opinions to be expressed and aggregated, potentially revealing insights that aren’t captured in standard polls or reports. It’s important to remember that prediction markets reflect the collective wisdom of traders, which may or may not align with expert opinions.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts directly reflects the probability of each outcome, as determined by supply and demand. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions based on new information, leading to dynamic price fluctuations and a constantly updated assessment of the likely outcome. This creates a real-time forecast based on the aggregated judgment of market participants.

This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 2:00 PM and 2:15 PM ET on October 22nd. If the price is higher at 2:15 PM ET than at 2:00 PM ET, the ‘Up’ outcome will win; otherwise, the ‘Down’ outcome will prevail. The final price will be sourced from publicly available financial data.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 22, 2026. Unexpected announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels, geopolitical events in major oil-producing regions, or significant shifts in global economic growth forecasts are all potential catalysts. Furthermore, inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and demand data from China could also play a role. Any news that alters the perceived supply or demand balance for crude oil is likely to cause price fluctuations and, consequently, shifts in the odds within this market.