TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.8b

24H VOL:

$277,138,640

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,905,404,943

412,077

Markets across

39,838

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,526

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 2:45AM-3AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$547

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 2:45AM-3AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 2:45AM-3AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 22, 2026

Closed: Oct 22, 3:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 2:45AM-3AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$211
$547
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T06:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T06:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market displays the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a price history chart showing how these probabilities have shifted over time, along with the total volume traded in this market, currently at $547. The 24-hour volume is also prominently displayed at $547, indicating recent trading activity. This provides a real-time view of where traders are placing their bets on future oil price movements.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts frequently rely on economic models and geopolitical assessments, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a diverse range of informed opinions. Discrepancies can arise due to differing interpretations of data, varying risk appetites, or the incorporation of non-public information by traders. It's common to see this market anticipate changes before they are reflected in consensus analyst expectations, making it a valuable complementary data point.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower by the specified resolution date. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly translating into implied probabilities. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market reflects the collective intelligence of participants, constantly adjusting to new information and shifting sentiment regarding future oil prices.

This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) during the specified time window. The direction of price movement – up or down – will determine the winning outcome in this market. Traders will be able to see the final result reflected in the market's history.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 22, 2026. Unexpected announcements from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) regarding production levels, geopolitical events impacting major oil-producing regions, or significant shifts in global economic growth forecasts are all potential catalysts. Furthermore, inventory reports from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and any unforeseen disruptions to oil supply chains, such as natural disasters or political instability, could also lead to substantial price movements and shifts in trading activity within this market.