TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.8b

24H VOL:

$260,393,102

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,894,304,386

408,643

Markets across

39,771

events

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4,493

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

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Kalshi:

63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 1AM-1:15AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$660

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 1AM-1:15AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 1AM-1:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 22, 2026

Closed: Oct 22, 1:15 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 1AM-1:15AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$199
$660
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T05:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T05:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current odds of the price going up or down, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $660, and the total volume traded to date, which is $660. This allows you to see how much activity there is and how traders are positioning themselves. The dashboard provides a real-time view of market sentiment regarding the direction of crude oil prices.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer point estimates or ranges, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a probabilistic view of the future. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. If analysts are consistently bullish while this market leans bearish, it suggests traders believe factors not fully captured in conventional analysis will influence the price of crude oil. It’s a valuable comparison point for informed decision-making.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower by the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the collective judgment of all participants on Predict and indicates the implied probability of the price moving in either direction. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for quick adaptation to new information.

This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 1:00 AM and 1:15 AM ET on October 22nd. The market will determine whether the price went up or down during that 15-minute window, and the outcome will be based on that verified change. This ensures a clear and objective determination of the result.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 22, 2026. Major geopolitical events, such as conflicts in oil-producing regions or changes in OPEC+ production policies, are key catalysts. Unexpected economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or inventory levels, could also have a substantial impact. Furthermore, significant weather events, like hurricanes disrupting oil production in the Gulf of Mexico, or shifts in the US dollar’s strength could influence trader sentiment and drive price fluctuations in this market.