TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$290,393,159

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,944,100,805

420,493

Markets across

40,511

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 12PM-12:15PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$626

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 12PM-12:15PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 12PM-12:15PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 22, 2026

Closed: Oct 22, 12:15 PM EST

predict

Predict

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 12PM-12:15PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$243
$626
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T16:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T16:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market provides a real-time view of how traders are pricing the likelihood of crude oil increasing or decreasing in value. You’ll find the current odds, a price history chart showing how sentiment has shifted over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, which is currently $624. The total volume traded on this market is $626. This allows you to quickly assess market sentiment and activity surrounding the direction of crude oil prices.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on economic models and geopolitical assessments, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a diverse range of informed opinions. Discrepancies can arise from differing assumptions, access to information, or simply varying interpretations of the same data. It's common to see this market anticipate shifts in sentiment before they are reflected in mainstream analyst reports, offering a potentially leading indicator of price movements.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether crude oil will be up or down by the specified time. The price of these contracts directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders adjust their bids and asks based on new information and their own analysis, creating a dynamic pricing mechanism. This means the odds you see are a direct result of real-money trading and represent the collective intelligence of the market participants.

This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 12:00 PM ET and 12:15 PM ET on October 22nd. If the price is higher at 12:15 PM ET than at 12:00 PM ET, the “Up” outcome will prevail; otherwise, the “Down” outcome will be considered the result.

Several factors could significantly impact this market leading up to Oct 22, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions or changes in OPEC+ policy, are major catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like manufacturing indices or Chinese economic growth figures), can also drive price movements. Furthermore, inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and any significant shifts in the US dollar's strength could influence trader sentiment and, consequently, the price of contracts in this market.