TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.8b

24H VOL:

$244,077,041

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,985,204,718

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,901,278,909

407,043

Markets across

39,548

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,422

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

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63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$852

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 22, 2026

Closed: Oct 22, 12:30 PM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$202
$852
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T16:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T16:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market displays the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a price chart reflecting the evolving odds, the total volume traded – currently $852 – and the 24-hour volume, which stands at $848. This allows participants to gauge market sentiment and track trading activity in real-time. The dashboard also shows the highest and lowest prices traded within a given period, providing a comprehensive overview of the market’s dynamics.

Currently, prediction market odds often present a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on fundamental and technical analysis, this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders responding to a wider range of information and potential events. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, particularly when unexpected geopolitical or economic factors come into play. Examining these differences can offer valuable insights into market perceptions and potential blind spots in conventional analysis.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the aggregated predictions of all participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market odds are constantly updated to incorporate new information and changing sentiment, offering a real-time assessment of potential price movements.

This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the closing price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) between 12:15 PM and 12:30 PM Eastern Time on October 22nd. The direction of the price change – up or down – will determine the winning outcome in this market.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 22, 2026. Unexpected announcements from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) regarding production levels, geopolitical tensions in major oil-producing regions, and shifts in global economic growth forecasts are all potential catalysts. Additionally, inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and any disruptions to oil supply due to weather events or infrastructure issues could also cause substantial price fluctuations and movement within this market. Monitoring these signals is crucial for understanding potential shifts in trader sentiment.