TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

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$230,589,906

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2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,885,293,300

410,482

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5

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 11AM-11:15AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$954

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 11AM-11:15AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 11AM-11:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 22, 2026

Closed: Oct 22, 11:15 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 11AM-11:15AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$14
$954
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T15:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T15:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, along with a price history chart showing how those probabilities have shifted over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $951, and the total volume traded to date, which is $954. This provides a quick overview of market sentiment and activity surrounding this event.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer point estimates or ranges, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a probabilistic view of the future. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. It’s common to see this market incorporate information faster than traditional forecasts, especially regarding unexpected geopolitical events or supply disruptions that could impact crude oil prices. Comparing these views can offer a more nuanced understanding of potential outcomes.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current implied probability of the price going up or down is reflected in the bid and ask prices of the contracts. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions, leading to dynamic price movements and a constantly updated forecast.

This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 11:00 AM and 11:15 AM Eastern Time on October 22nd. The market will determine whether the price moved up or down during that 15-minute window, and the outcome will be based on that verified change. This provides a clear and objective determination of the market’s result.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 22, 2026. Unexpected announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels, geopolitical tensions in major oil-producing regions, or significant shifts in global economic growth forecasts are all potential catalysts. Furthermore, inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and unexpected disruptions to oil supply, such as weather events or pipeline outages, could also cause substantial price fluctuations. Any news impacting the supply or demand balance for crude oil has the potential to influence trading activity in this market.