TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$230,589,906

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,885,293,300

410,482

Markets across

40,213

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,340

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$1,435

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET - Predict

1W

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Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 22, 2026

Closed: Oct 22, 11:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$298
$1,435
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T15:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T15:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, along with a price history chart showing how the market has priced the event over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $1,433, and the total volume traded to date, which is $1,435. This provides a clear overview of market sentiment and activity surrounding the potential movement of crude oil prices.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on fundamental and technical analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential unforeseen events. Discrepancies can arise from differing assumptions about geopolitical risks, supply chain disruptions, or unexpected demand shifts. It's common to see this market anticipate changes before they are reflected in consensus analyst ratings, offering a potentially leading indicator of price movements.

This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 11:30 AM and 11:45 AM Eastern Time on October 22nd. The market will determine whether the price increased or decreased during that 15-minute window, and payouts will be awarded accordingly to those who correctly predicted the direction of the price movement.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 22, 2026. Unexpected announcements from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) regarding production levels, geopolitical events in major oil-producing regions, or shifts in global economic growth forecasts could all trigger substantial price movements. Furthermore, inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and any disruptions to oil infrastructure, such as pipeline outages or refinery issues, could also influence trading activity and shift the market’s probabilities. Any major weather events impacting oil production or transportation are also key signals to watch.