TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.8b

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$238,896,186

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2,985,204,718

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,897,934,485

408,127

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5

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 10AM-10:15AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$528

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 10AM-10:15AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 10AM-10:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 22, 2026

Closed: Oct 22, 10:15 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 10AM-10:15AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$209
$528
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T14:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-22T14:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities for the price of crude oil to move up or down. You'll find a real-time display of the odds, along with a price history chart showing how sentiment has shifted over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $526, and the total volume traded to date, which is $528. This allows you to quickly gauge market interest and the intensity of trading activity surrounding this event.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on fundamental and technical analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and anticipating potential surprises. Discrepancies can arise due to differing assumptions, risk appetites, and the ability of the market to rapidly adjust to new information. It is not uncommon to see this market diverge from the consensus view offered by financial news outlets and expert opinions.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the outcome. The price of each contract directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust dynamically, providing a real-time assessment of market sentiment. The current spread between the 'up' and 'down' contracts indicates the level of uncertainty surrounding the future price of crude oil.

This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 10:00 AM ET and 10:15 AM ET on October 22nd. The market will determine whether the price moved up or down during that 15-minute window, based on publicly available data from established financial sources.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 22, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions or shifts in international relations, could cause price volatility. Economic data releases, including inventory reports and manufacturing indices, can also impact sentiment. Furthermore, statements from OPEC+ regarding production levels or changes in global demand forecasts could move the market. Any surprise announcements related to energy policy or major economic shifts are likely to be closely watched by traders.