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416,910

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$28

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 22, 2026

Closed: Oct 22, 10:45 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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Liquidity
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 22, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$0
$28
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T02:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-23T02:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find the odds reflecting what traders believe will happen, along with a price history chart showing how those probabilities have shifted over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $28, and the total volume traded to date, which is $28. This provides a real-time view of market sentiment and activity surrounding this particular commodity.

Typically, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts often rely on models and fundamental analysis, this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who are putting their money where their mouths are. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, as prediction markets can incorporate information that isn’t easily quantifiable or reflected in standard models. Do analysts currently predict the crude oil price will go up or down? This market provides a unique data point to compare against those expectations.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the crude oil price will increase or decrease. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective predictions of the traders. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe the price will go up, the higher the price of 'up' contracts will climb, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism creates a real-time probability assessment of the future price movement.

This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 10:30 PM ET and 10:45 PM ET on October 22nd. If the price is higher at 10:45 PM ET than at 10:30 PM ET, the 'Crude Oil Up' outcome will be considered correct; otherwise, the 'Crude Oil Down' outcome will prevail. The exact price change will not be published as part of the resolution.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before it resolves. Unexpected geopolitical events in oil-producing regions, such as disruptions to supply or political instability, are major catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like manufacturing indices or GDP growth), can also shift trader sentiment. Furthermore, any significant news regarding OPEC+ production decisions or inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) could cause substantial price movements and impact this market. Keep an eye on these key indicators as Oct 23, 2026 approaches.