TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.6b

24H VOL:

$333,432,169

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,971,286,090

419,492

Markets across

40,634

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,654

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 21, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$1,463

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 21, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 21, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 21, 2026

Closed: Oct 21, 9:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 21, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$198
$1,463
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T13:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T13:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price movement tracks the implied probability of the price going up or down, represented as odds. It also displays the trading volume over the past 24 hours, currently at $1,465, and the total volume traded to date, which is $1,463. Users can view a price history chart to see how the market has fluctuated and assess the current sentiment. The dashboard provides a real-time view of how traders are positioning themselves on the direction of crude oil prices before Oct 21, 2026.

Currently, the prevailing sentiment in this market reflects a different outlook than many traditional analyst forecasts. While some analysts predict a stable price, the market suggests a higher probability of price fluctuation. It's important to note that prediction markets incorporate a wider range of information and perspectives than typical polls or surveys, potentially leading to more accurate short-term predictions. This market allows traders to express their beliefs about the crude oil price movement, which can differ from the consensus view of financial experts.

This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the crude oil price between 9:30 AM and 9:45 AM ET on October 21st. The market will determine whether the price moved up or down during that 15-minute window, and the outcome will be reported based on established financial data sources. Traders will then be able to see whether their predictions aligned with the actual price movement.

Several signals could significantly move this market before Oct 21, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events in major oil-producing regions, such as disruptions to supply or changes in political stability, would likely have a substantial impact. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or inventory levels, could also influence trader sentiment. Furthermore, any significant announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels or policy changes could trigger a rapid shift in the market’s direction. Traders are closely monitoring these factors to refine their predictions about the crude oil price movement.