TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.8b

24H VOL:

$244,077,041

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,985,204,718

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,901,278,909

407,043

Markets across

39,548

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,422

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 21, 8:45AM-9AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$1,901

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 21, 8:45AM-9AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 21, 8:45AM-9AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 21, 2026

Closed: Oct 21, 9:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 21, 8:45AM-9AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$211
$1,901
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T12:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T12:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price movement tracks the current odds of the price going up or down between 8:45 AM and 9:00 AM ET on October 21st. You’ll find a price history chart showing how the probabilities have shifted over time, along with the total volume traded in this market, currently at $1,901, and the 24-hour volume, which stands at $1,899. This allows you to see how traders are reacting to the latest news and information regarding crude oil.

Currently, analysts are divided on the short-term direction of crude oil prices, with forecasts ranging from a slight increase due to geopolitical tensions to a potential decrease based on concerns about global economic slowdown. This market provides a different perspective, reflecting the collective wisdom of traders who are putting their capital at risk. It’s a real-time assessment of probabilities, distinct from static analyst opinions, and can offer a valuable signal about where the smart money is positioned regarding the crude oil price movement.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the odds you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price reflects the aggregated sentiment of all participants, offering a dynamic and responsive indicator of expectations for the crude oil price movement.

This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures contracts between 8:45 AM and 9:00 AM ET on October 21st. If the price is higher at 9:00 AM ET than at 8:45 AM ET, the 'Up' outcome will be considered correct; otherwise, the 'Down' outcome will prevail.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before resolution. Unexpected news regarding OPEC+ production decisions, geopolitical events in major oil-producing regions, or even surprising inventory reports from the U.S. Energy Information Administration could all cause substantial shifts in the odds. Additionally, major economic data releases, such as inflation figures or GDP growth rates, could influence investor sentiment and, consequently, the price of crude oil, thereby affecting this market. Any unforeseen disruptions to oil supply or demand could also play a crucial role.