TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$235,918,089

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,884,820,873

413,109

Markets across

40,428

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,364

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 21, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$1,644

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 21, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 21, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET - Predict

1W

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Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 21, 2026

Closed: Oct 21, 7:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 21, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$198
$1,644
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T11:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T11:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a running display of the odds, along with a price history chart showing how sentiment has shifted over time. The dashboard also shows the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $1,617, and the total volume traded to date, which is $1,644. This provides a real-time view of where traders are placing their bets on future price movements.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on fundamental and technical analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential catalysts. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially when unexpected events or sentiment shifts occur. Examining these differences can offer valuable insights into market expectations and potential blind spots in conventional analysis, providing a unique view beyond standard predictions.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the future price of crude oil. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective predictions of participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This means the odds are constantly updating as new information becomes available and traders adjust their positions, creating a dynamic and responsive price discovery process. The current implied probabilities are shaped entirely by the actions of traders on Predict.

This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 7:30 AM and 7:45 AM Eastern Time on October 21, 2026, as reported by a widely recognized financial data provider. The market will determine whether the price moved up or down during that 15-minute window, and the outcome will reflect that direction.

Numerous signals and events could significantly impact this market. Geopolitical tensions in oil-producing regions, unexpected changes in OPEC+ production policies, and shifts in global economic growth forecasts are all major catalysts. Additionally, inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and demand data from China can create volatility. Even weather events, like hurricanes disrupting oil production in the Gulf of Mexico, could influence trader sentiment and move the odds in either direction. Any surprise announcements regarding energy policy could also have a substantial effect.