TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$290,393,159

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,944,100,805

420,493

Markets across

40,511

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 21, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$429

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 21, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 21, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 21, 2026

Closed: Oct 21, 7:30 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 21, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$203
$429
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T23:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T23:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current odds of the price going up or down, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You'll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $429, and the total volume traded to date, which stands at $429. This provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the likelihood of price movements and how much activity is occurring in this market. The dashboard is a key tool for understanding market sentiment.

Currently, the collective wisdom of traders in this market offers a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts are predicting a stable or slightly increasing oil price, this market reflects a more nuanced view, with traders assigning probabilities to both upward and downward movements. It’s important to remember that analyst forecasts are often based on models and assumptions, while this market represents a real-money assessment of potential outcomes. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information access or varying interpretations of economic indicators.

This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the closing price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) between 7:15 PM and 7:30 PM Eastern Time on October 21st. The direction of price movement – up or down – will determine which outcome is considered correct for this market.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 21, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions, or changes in OPEC+ production policies are major catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like manufacturing indices or Chinese economic growth figures), could also shift trader sentiment. Furthermore, any significant news regarding inventory levels, refinery activity, or shifts in currency exchange rates could influence the price of crude oil and, consequently, the odds in this market.