TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$235,918,089

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,884,820,873

413,109

Markets across

40,428

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,364

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 21, 5AM-5:15AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$541

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 21, 5AM-5:15AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 21, 5AM-5:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 21, 2026

Closed: Oct 21, 5:15 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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24h
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 21, 5AM-5:15AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$210
$541
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T09:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T09:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current odds of prices going up or down, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $540, and the total volume traded to date, which is $541. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and activity. The dashboard provides a real-time view of where traders are placing their bets on the future direction of crude oil prices.

Currently, prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts frequently publish price targets and recommendations, this market reflects the collective judgment of individuals incentivized to make accurate predictions. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. It's common to see this market incorporate information faster than traditional forecasts, as traders react quickly to new developments. Comparing the two can provide a more comprehensive understanding of potential price movements.

This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 5:00 AM and 5:15 AM Eastern Time on October 21, 2026, compared to the price at the start of the trading period. The direction of the price change – up or down – will determine the winning outcome in this market.

Several factors could significantly influence this market. Geopolitical events, such as conflicts in oil-producing regions or changes in OPEC+ production policies, are major drivers. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like GDP growth or manufacturing indices), can also have a substantial impact. Unexpected supply disruptions, like refinery outages or pipeline issues, could also move the market. Finally, shifts in investor sentiment, driven by news or analysis, can contribute to price volatility in the crude oil price market.