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408,127

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 21, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$38

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 21, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 21, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 21, 2026

Closed: Oct 21, 5:45 PM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 21, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$5
$38
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T21:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T21:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probability of the price of crude oil going up or down, as reflected by traders’ bets. You’ll find a price history showing how the market has moved over time, alongside the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $38. The total volume traded on this market is $38. This provides a real-time view of how the crowd is assessing the likely direction of crude oil prices leading up to the event.

Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for crude oil. While analysts often provide point estimates or ranges, this market aggregates the collective judgment of many traders, representing a probability distribution of potential outcomes. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, as markets can incorporate information and react to news more quickly than slower-moving analyst reports. Examining these differences can be valuable for a more comprehensive understanding of potential price movements.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the consensus view of all participants, and the 24-hour volume indicates the level of activity and interest in this particular market.

This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will reflect whether the crude oil price at 5:30PM-5:45PM ET on October 21st is higher or lower than the price at the start of that period. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized and publicly available index, ensuring a transparent and objective determination of the result for this market.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 21, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events in major oil-producing regions, such as disruptions to supply or shifts in political stability, are key catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like manufacturing indices or GDP figures), will also be closely watched. Furthermore, announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels, and any significant changes in inventory levels reported by the EIA, could all cause substantial movement in this market.