TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$290,393,159

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,944,100,805

420,493

Markets across

40,511

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 21, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$203

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 21, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 21, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 21, 2026

Closed: Oct 21, 5:30 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 21, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$191
$203
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T09:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-21T09:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market provides a real-time view of how traders are pricing the likelihood of crude oil increasing or decreasing in value. You’ll find the current odds, a price history chart showing how sentiment has shifted over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $202. The total volume traded on this market is $203. This allows you to quickly assess market sentiment and participation levels.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on complex economic models and geopolitical assessments, this market represents the collective wisdom of individuals putting their money where their beliefs are. Discrepancies can arise from differing information access, biases, or simply a different interpretation of the same data. It's common to see this market anticipating movements before they are reflected in mainstream analyst predictions, or conversely, discounting forecasts based on real-time trading activity.

This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 5:15 AM and 5:30 AM Eastern Time on October 21, 2026, compared to the price at the start of that period. The direction of the price change – up or down – will determine the winning outcome in this market.

Several factors could significantly move this market before its resolution. Geopolitical events, such as conflicts in oil-producing regions or changes in OPEC+ production policies, are major catalysts. Unexpected economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or inflation, can also have a substantial impact. Furthermore, major weather events that disrupt oil production or transportation, or even shifts in investor sentiment driven by news headlines, could all contribute to price fluctuations and alter the odds in this market.